2024 china power market outlook: 10 key trends for market playersreport / july 2024 rmi.org / 22024 china power market outlook: 10 key trends for market playersabout rmirmi is an independent nonprofit founded in 1982 that transforms global energy systems through market-driven solutions to align with a 1.5°c future and secure a clean, prosperous, zero-carbon future for all. we work in the world’s most critical geographies and engage businesses, policymakers, communities, and ngos to identify and scale energy system interventions that will cut climate pollution at least 50 percent by 2030. rmi has offices in basalt and boulder, colorado; new york city; oakland, california; washington, d.c.; abuja, nigeria; and beijing, people’s republic of china. rmi.org / 32024 china power market outlook: 10 key trends for market playersauthors and acknowledgmentsauthorszihao chenshuo gaoyi jiangting liyujing liuziyi liujialin tiankang wang, cross-strait tsinghua research instituteliyue zhangauthors listed alphabetically. all authors from rmi unless otherwise noted. contactsshuo gao, sgao@rmi.orgj9九游会登录入口首页新版 copyrights and citationshuo gao et al., 2024 china power market outlook: 10 key trends for market players, rmi, 2024, https://rmi.org/insight/2024-china-power-market-outlook-10-key-trends-for-market-players/.rmi values collaboration and aims to accelerate the energy transition through sharing knowledge and insights. we therefore allow interested parties to reference, share, and cite our work through the creative commons cc by-sa 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/. all images used are from istock.com unless otherwise noted. rmi.org / 42024 china power market outlook: 10 key trends for market playerstable of contentsexecutive summary5energy1 twenty-three provinces have initiated the (trial) operation of the power spot market, and the renewables output shapes the peak-valley pattern of spot prices. 82 time-of-use electricity pricing policy iterates frequently, with spot prices playing a guiding role. 153 the power retail market has made improvements in expanding user coverage, diversifying retail companies, and conveying wholesale market signals to retail market. 24transmission and distribution4 t&d tariffs better reflect the costs of grid operations; transmission losses and system operation fees are now listed explicitly on electricity bills. 28capacity pricing5 the coal power capacity pricing mechanism is introduced, reconstructing the electricity price structure of both power generators and consumers, and supporting the transformation of coal power’s role. 33ancillary services6 the ancillary services market pricing mechanism is improved and standardized; renewables and energy storage owners may need market strategy adjustments. 37renewables and energy storage7 the market-oriented transactions of renewables are scaling up, bringing challenges to project profitability in the long run due to price fluctuations. 398 as distributed pv grows rapidly in china, developers should closely monitor grid access and feed-in price policies. 429 independent energy storage expands market participation; the energy market is still their primary revenue source. 4510 the green power and green electricity certificate markets continue to expand, with a relatively relaxed supply–demand relationship in the short term. 49endnotes 55 rmi.org / 52024 china power market outlook: 10 key trends for market playersexecutive summarylaunched in 2015, the second round of power market reform in china has been underway for more than nine years. since 2020, with the announcement of the dual carbon target and the new power system,i the power market system has also been designed to support accelerated renewable power development, promote the low-carbon transformation, and support new power system construction.over the past year, power market reform has made comprehensive progress, and the electricity pricing system has been further refined and improved. at the national level, multiple components in the electricity market and pricing system, including transmission and distribution (t&d) tariffs, the power spot market, power capacity price, and ancillary services markets, have all undergone important updates, favoring new power system construction and renewable energy access. these updates profoundly influence the composition of industrial and commercial (i&c) electricity prices and set a refined price formation mechanism (see exhibit 1):• t&d tariff: the tariff for the 2023–25 period was released. unlike the bundled t&d tariff in the past, the transmission loss and system operation fees are separated from the new t&d tariff effective in june 2023.• power spot market: the first national-level basic rule for the power spot market was released in late september 2023, which standardizes the market cons